Serhiy Yahnych, Head of Corporate Finance, UkrSibbank:
Money market rates fluctuated around 10-13% during last week except for a hike on Tuesday (24%) caused by liquidity drop following NBU FX interventions. Closing KievPrime O/N rate on Friday was 10.5%, up 5.4 bp w/w but still significantly lower than July’s average (18%). KievPrime 1M rates also remanined unchanged last week closing at 22.3% on Friday.
NBU intervention on the Tuesday July 31 (est. USD 300-350 mn) did not prevent UAH/USD rate from gaining UAH 0.02 last week. UAH USD closing rate on Friday was 8.10 vs. 8.08 a week ago. Due to high volumes of FX sold on Tuesday (USD 1.3 bn) last week total sales of FX soared to USD 5.2 bn equivalent vs. only USD 4.4 bn a week ago.
Last week UAH USD NDF curved inched up insignificantly. On Friday 12M UAH USD rate closed at 10.22 adding a negligible 0.04; 6M rate was at 9.33,+ 0.21 w/w. NDF implied yields - 12M yield stood at 26.5% on Friday, flat w/w. Despite the placement of USD 2 bn Eurobond in July and stabilization of UAH relative to its major trading partners, Trade balance and international reserves dynamics highlight that fundamental pressures on UAH remain high.