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  • Alfa Bank
  • E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin
  • E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin (Russian only)
  • Promsvyazbank
  • Raiffeisen Bank
  • Region BC
  • ROSBANK
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  • AK BARS Bank
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  • Credit Bank of Moscow
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  • Expert RA
  • Finance Ministry of Ukraine
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  • First Heartland Jysan Invest
  • Freedom Finance Ukraine
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  • Halyk Finance
  • Hong Leong Bank
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  • IC RUSS-INVEST
  • ICU
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  • IG Univer Ukraine
  • ING Wholesale Banking Russia
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  • Price Center «Cbonds Valuation»
  • Promsvyaz, Ltd.
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  • Raiffeisen Capital Asset Management Company
  • RANEPA
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  • Region investitsii
  • Renesource Capital
  • RIKOM-Trust
  • Risk Management Institute
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  • Russian Agricultural Bank
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  • SOLID Management, JSC
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  • UkrSibbank
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Source Research
July 15, 2020
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Hard-currency borrowings
UkrSibbank Ukraine’s inflation reaccelerating in line with our expectations
Adamant Capital (Ukraine) Fixed Income Weekly Digest July 8 - 14, 2020
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
July 14, 2020
ICU Weekly Insight -- Consumer inflation accelerated
E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin Russia’s Growth and Finance: Dependence on Oil Price Muted, Growth Trajectory Unclear, Balance Sheets Little Shaken
Description
As the oil price rebounded in May, hovered around $40/bbl in June, and ascended a bit more in early July, the debate on whether economies can return to the pre-pandemic growth trajectory renewed in many countries despite high uncertainty. In some sense, Russia is lucky as this debate on a return to the previous growth trajectory makes no sense, given that it is not clear what this trajectory looked like in the past and what timeframe could be appropriate in search of such a trajectory. After the 2008-2009 crisis, Russia's growth from 2010 to 2019 averaged at around 1.9%, while in the past seven years, this figure was 0.9%. Both figures look equally unimpressive. Overall, the dependence of Russia’s economic growth on the oil price was muted since 2009, and in the second half of this period it was almost non-existent. A weakening dependence of the Russian economy on the price of oil was observed in various areas, including the budget. In 2012-2014, the share of oil-and-gas revenues in the federal budget was above 50%, while in 2018 and 2019 it fell to 46% and 39%, respectively, and the budget was in strong surplus. This year it may fall below 30%, albeit the federal budget will be in deficit. It is not the budget alone that became less dependent on oil, but the balance of payments as well. Crude and refined oil generated over 50% of total export revenues until 2015. Together with gas (natural and later accompanied by LNG) energy exports brought over two thirds of total export revenues until 2015. Since then, the share of energy exports declined, LNG started playing a greater role as part of Russia’s gas exports, and in 1H20 non-energy exports provided around a half of total export revenues. It will be, of course, premature to say that Russia’s economic growth and finances do not depend on energy exports. However, this dependence has subsided, which gave the Russian government more room for maneuver – whether dealing with domestic policy issues or with geopolitics. Becoming less dependent on the price of oil, Russia feels less pressure to make quick and ill-conceived decisions, and therefore has a better bargaining position. As time goes by, more information becomes available, and better options can be chosen, as happened in April with the OPEC+ deal. GKEM Analytica reports have become paid starting Jan 1, 2020. To receive full text report, please contact us at research@gkem-analytica.com
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
July 13, 2020
Eavex Capital Ukraine Fixed Income Weekly (Jul 13, 2020)
Eavex Capital Ukraine Market Monitor (Jul 13, 2020)
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
July 10, 2020
Alfa-Bank Ukraine Latest developments in Ukraine (10 July 2020)
Hong Leong Bank Weekly Market Highlights
Lianhe Ratings Global Mid-Year Review on Chinese LGFVs: Proactive Policies Mitigate Impact of COVID-19 Outbreak
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
July 09, 2020
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
July 08, 2020
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Borrowings decline
Lianhe Ratings Global Lianhe Global has assigned ‘BB’ to Yango Group Co., Ltd’s proposed USD notes
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
July 07, 2020
Adamant Capital (Ukraine) Fixed Income Weekly Digest (July 1 - 7, 2020)
Lianhe Ratings Global Mid-Year Review on Chinese Property Developers: A Tale of Two Cities
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
July 06, 2020
ICU Weekly Insight -- Governor of NBU resigns
Eavex Capital Ukraine Fixed Income Weekly (Jul 6, 2020)
“Research and analytics” section shows daily analytical commentary, weekly and special reviews from leading investment banks on the following topics: macroeconomics, money market, bonds and international bonds, syndicated loans and promissory notes. Comments can be searched by topic, source, key words, and review publication frequency. It is possible to set automatic e-mail sending of required comments from a certain source.
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